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[EN] Mortality

Aktualisiert: 17. Jan. 2021


You may want to skip these lines and go directly to the numbers, if so, go to the section “Let’s get started”.

The motivation behind this analysis is a mixture of things. A pile of evidence, the Corman-Drosten review [1] being just one example, seems to be not enough to convince scientists that there is a need for corroboration.

A lot of people I talk to dismiss the mere idea of informing themselves and thinking about it, they were taught they are not able and there are people better suited for such a task. Some people told me, it does not matter whether the testing procedures and devices used to do it work properly or not, or are even meant to be used for that, because “dead men tell no lies”.

Months later I came across an article [2] published by The John Hopkins News-Letter based on a Webinar led by Dr. Genevieve Briand about deaths in the US [3]. This article was retracted four days later because it “has been used to support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic” and “to stop the spread of misinformation” [4]. A day later, the article’s author expressed herself on this matter [5]. It has also been addressed by other Institutes [6][7].

That was the last push I needed so I started gathering data. The data I used for this analysis comes from The Robert Koch Institute [8] and German Federal Statistical Office [9]. More specifically:

- Deaths by weeks and age group for Germany 2016 – 2020 [10]

- Population by age group (from 1950) [11]

- Population based on the 2011 census by gender and nationality over time [12]

- Migration between Germany and abroad: Germany, months, nationality, gender [13]

- CSV with the current Covid-19 infections per day (time series) [14]

- CSV-files-with-Covid-19-infections [15]

- Live births: Germany, years, gender [16]

- Population: Germany, reference date, years of age [17]

Deaths, excess deaths, more deaths, and even more deaths

The first thing that comes to mind when thinking about COVID deaths is that they are just too many. It is narrated by governments and mass media in such a way that there is no doubt they are too many. There is also no need for context to understand how many more they are. “Excess deaths” is the term used to give people an idea of how many more they are, the term itself is more than enough for people to get how severe the situation is, if there is an excess then it is bad enough.

Instead of explaining what the term “excess deaths” means and what it is used for, I will rather use actual numbers to draw graphs. These graphs, I hope, will convey the idea and severity, not only of the situation, but also of the intention of governments, mass media and people with interests other than the wellbeing of the people, saving lives and betterment of humanity.

After you give this (all this in here) an opportunity and then try to think for yourself, instead of blindly believing what you are told by the same people who lie to you constantly and try to manipulate you to take advantage of you year after year, maybe then you will begin to question the official narrative and demand they give you what you deserve, transparency, the truth.

Something is wrong, very very wrong. We might not know what it actually is, but there is a lot of hints out there pointing it out.

Let’s get started!

I drew, in most graphs, the year 2020 with and without COVID deaths, to show how it would look if those people would not have died, as authorities and authorized voices mean [18], if not for this pandemic. All graphs show data for Germany only. The data for the year 2020 has numbers up to the calendar week number 48, Germany will neither publish the remaining information (weeks 49 to 53) until maybe February 2021, or even October 2021 depending on what kind of information you want, nor share it. For comparisons’ sake I will present a table with cumulated deaths for each year up to calendar week 48 as needed.

The Graph 1 [19] shows weekly deaths for the last five years:

Graph 1: Here we can see numbers for the calendar week with the highest number of deaths of each year and, in the legend, the total deaths for the year.

A few noteworthy things, there is a significant peak for the years 2017 and 2018 at the beginning, the other years are nowhere near those peaks. The peak at the beginning of the year belongs to the winter, deaths or “excess deaths” during that period are usually attributed to the wave of influenza. Taking a look at 2019 and 2020 (with COVID) we can observe both are quite similar but took place at different weeks. And lastly, aside from the beginning, the year 2020 had a high number of deaths from weeks 21 to 41 (after the first wave ended). Wait a minute, how many COVID deaths did we have during those twenty weeks? The number of cumulated COVID deaths is 1.886 and the number of cumulated deaths excluding COVID is 357.670.

Let me show cumulated numbers for each year, from weeks 1 to 20, 21 to 41:

Clearly, we can see that the winter of 2020 with or without COVID was not as bad as the winters of 2017 and 2018. Not even close. The following weeks, corresponding to spring and summer are following a pattern I will talk about later.

Now as promised from weeks 1 to 48:

At first sight, 2020 looks as bad as the worst wave of influenza in the last twenty years, which happened in 2018. But we also see something else, years go by and the number of deaths keeps going up. Without COVID seems we would have had a rather mild year or maybe not (more on this later). In the remaining five weeks, from 49 to 53, we had 17.345 COVID deaths. What we must not forget is that at that time we performed average around one million two hundred and fifty thousand tests weekly (1.250.000), whereas in April we were at three hundred fifty thousand (350.000). Meaning the more you test the more COVID positives you will find. Either way it does not matter as we will see later.

Raw numbers are not all there is to mortality. We have to go deeper either to understand what might be happening or to be sure we already know what is happening. How do we do that? In science exists thanks, to Karl Popper, a method called “empirical falsification” [20]. With this I will try to prove the current narrative wrong with evidence I gathered from official sources.

What do we know about COVID? It kills mostly old people, as of 8th of December 2020 around 87% of deaths were people 70 years old or older [21]. Due to the availability of data, I focused on people 80 years old or older, which would be according to the already linked article around 66,3%.

With Graph 2 [22], I show the already known numbers, this time divided by age group:

Graph 2: Again, we can see numbers for the calendar week with the highest number of deaths of each year and, in the legend, the total deaths for the year by age group.

The lines show, once again, a similarity between 2019 and 2020, the second differentiating itself from the first only at the end of the year. A small difference and a big difference between 2020 with and without COVID on both the age groups “60-79” and “80+”. Still the winters of 2017 and 2018 are the big winners by far in terms of peaks.

Let’s take a look at the table, first the age group “0-59” to get it out of the way:

Weird, we actually have fewer deaths as years go by, whether with or without COVID. A hint maybe?

I will just show weeks 1 to 48 so it gets interesting, let’s see age group “60-79”:

It seems quite alright, the numbers once again, begin to show an improvement as years go by.

And last but not least the age group “80+”:

Well, look at that. Even 2019 being as mild as it was is up there with 2018 for this age group but the winner is 2020 with COVID having exceeded even 2018 by far. At this point I am beginning to believe the official narrative…

Let’s take a look at this data in Graph 3 [23] as a timeline:

Graph 3: Both 2016 and 2017 show no signs of heat waves as opposed to 2018, 2019 and 2020. On the other hand, 2019 and 2020 have overall more deaths through the year. The year 2018 looks scary but all in all 2019 and 2020 demonstrate that no peaks may carry a big death toll as well.

Another way of looking at mortality when working with populations is the mortality distribution by age group. Why? Like I said, raw numbers are not all there is to mortality. As number of deaths can vary so much, they are not easy to compare. Peaks might hint bad winters or summers, but peaks are either preceded or followed by hollows. In terms of nature, peaks usually kill people more likely to die. And as peaks kill so many people, the hollows after the peak are there to show that those likelier are, sadly but naturally, not alive anymore.

So, I have to go deeper and see what I find in Graph 4 [24]:

Graph 4: As the sum of all three age groups must be 100%, when there are more deaths in an age group, one of others or both will decrease. Here again only the highest value for a week will be shown. In the legend also the average for each year will be shown. The first thing we see, if we focus on the age group “80+”, is that as years go by the line goes up, always. The age group “60-79” does the opposite.

The table might help some people compare the average values:

Three things to mention. First, as years go by both the age group “0-59” and “60-79” decrease and the age group “80+” increases. Second, the difference for the year 2020 with and without COVID does not appear to be relevant, but of course, we are talking about a ten thousand in five hundred thousand. And third, we could argue from 2019 to 2020 we have a big leap, but we have such a leap from 2016 to 2017 also.

In the Graph 5 [25] I show only the age group “80+” as a timeline to help understand the numbers:

Graph 5: The numbers we see are, the highest and lowest values for each year, the average for each year, and lastly the difference between the actual values and the average for that year. Do not forget, this work is missing the last four weeks, so the average and the peak for 2020 will be even higher.

First things first, even without COVID the deaths percentage for this age group is quite high in comparison to 2019. The leap is almost as high as 2016 to 2017. But what bugs me is, why does the deaths percentage keep going up? And finally, look at the end of 2016 and see how it ended in 2017, what awaits us this winter? A lot of deaths, for sure. The questions are, are they due to COVID? And can we actually avoid them?

In my honest opinion, we cannot. It is natural process. We cannot cheat death. We can maybe postpone it but never definitely escape death. The argument is, of course, they die from COVID, thus it can be avoided, as without COVID they would not have died, at least most of them [18]. To support my opinion, I have to keep showing the results of my analysis.

Let’s go to Graph 6 [26], where I show population data, as deaths have a context and it gives hints if not answers:

Graph 6: As this data is published around October each year, I took the liberty of predicting (roughly calculated based on the data I gathered from official sources) the end of 2020 and whole 2021, because I am not waiting until October 2021 and also found interesting to try and see how far off my numbers will be. What I did in each situation will be explained as they come.

So, the first thing to note is that the population growth, in terms of births and deaths, is negative. Many might already know it, others not. With a difference of almost two hundred thousand each year, if not for migration, the population in Germany would decrease. The second is that the growth produced by migration made a big leap in 2015 but went back again to the usual growth the next years, that leap resulted in an increase in births. The last is that the number of deaths rise steadily, with a drop every now and then.

As this analysis focus on mortality, but we have seen the age group plays a big role, before going back to deaths, let me first show the population distribution by age group with Graph 7 [27]:

Graph 7: It is crystal clear how both age groups “60-79” and “80+” grow year after year. The age group “0-59” increases big time in 2015 but starts shrinking soon after that. I analyzed both tendencies and applied the resulting knowledge to predict (roughly calculate) both 2020 and 2021.

For the age group distribution I used a table [11] provided by the German Federal Statistical Office [9]. This numbers are up to December 31 of each year.

The columns are as follows:

- Year

- Total number

- Under 20 years old (%)

- From 20 to 40 (%)

- From 40 to 60 (%)

- From 60 to 80 (%)

- 80 years old and older (%)

The predictions for population growth are based on a few parameters, the first one is another table [12] also provided by the same office [9]:

This table has more information which I did not need. So, I present here only one row with the number of people up to the three points in time, which is missing in my other sources.

Another parameter is the births [16], the prediction for this parameter was made averaging the births for the last four years.

Yet another parameter is migration [13], for the prediction of this one I took the lowest number in the dataset. We see as of March 31, 2020 the population decreased. At the end of June, it decreased even further, showing a small increase at the end of September. My assumption is, given the closing of borders due to the pandemic, the migration this year was not as high. Probably by the end of December the population decreased even further.

With Graph 8 [28] I show the migration by age group of the last nine years:

Graph 8: Our age group of interest show a negative migration, meaning people left the country.

The last parameter is deaths, but before going into detail, let me explain why the population for the age groups “60-79” and “80+”, predicted or official, steadily increase. As we have seen, the migration for both age groups is not significant, it has no impact whatsoever in the population. Meaning there are only two factors affecting its number, aging and death. The first contributing to the growth of both groups thanks to people turning 60 years old and 80 years old (this last one simultaneously shrinking the group “60-79”), and the second obviously reducing the number in both groups. The analyzed tendencies show that around 4% (not exactly 4, and it varies slightly each year) of the population from the age group “60-79” turns 80 years old. There are more people turning 60 years old and 80 years old yearly, entering the next age group, than those who die in the group each year. Thus, the population grows.

Now onto Graph 9 [29], the mortality rate within each age group:

Graph 9: This graph shows the percentage of deaths within each age group. How do you get this value? The numbers provided by the official sources are up to 31 December of each year, meaning that every person who died that year is not included anymore and every person which aged and entered the next age group is included in that next group. I added the number of deaths for each age group to that number and calculated how much the number of deaths represent resulting in the deaths percentage within the each group. Migration is not included; it is not relevant for this age group.

Once again, the age group “0-59” can be ignored, in the sense that they do not impact mortality that much, its deaths percentage does not vary greatly and it makes sense, it is composed mostly of young healthy people.

The age group “60-79” shows a decreasing deaths percentage with the passing years spiking from time to time, mostly due to bad winters, as expected of nature.

Lastly, our age group of interest, “80+”, also shows a decreasing deaths percentage as years go by. This behavior is mostly due to the positive growth of its population, which also goes for the previous age group. The spikes are more pronounced here, given it has the most deaths (indeed, that is not valid only for COVID). Noteworthy is how the deaths percentage decreased two years consecutively only once, in 2018 and 2019. Both 2018 and 2019 are the ones with the most deaths (until 2020 gets published). How can it be? The more the population within an age group grows, the more the deaths percentage decreases, as like I said before, less people die in the age group compared to the number of people entering such age group by aging. If in 2020 the deaths percentage does not spike, which seems to be the case given a lot of deaths happened over the year instead of in winter, this spike will most probably happen in 2021. I repeat myself, in 2021 we will see a lot of deaths. I do not think possible that the deaths percentage will not spike three years in a row. It is, in my honest opinion, to be expected that one will take place, as nature will run its course, sooner or later.

Here, my prediction is no calculation at all. I do not like playing divination and I could not think of a model to predict these values, the data is not enough for me to feel confident and make one up. I used the deaths percentage from 2019 for each age group, in both 2020 and 2021. I applied such percentages to my predicted population for both years and then calculated the numbers of deaths. Additionally, for 2020 I subtracted the number of COVID deaths and recalculated the deaths percentage, the results are the pink dotted lines. Sadly, without the COVID deaths, the number for this year would not make sense at all. My predictions will not be on point, but I am confident they will be pretty close.

Let me show you Graph 10 [30], which has the number of deaths for each age group:

Graph 10: There is not a lot to explain here. Like I said, the years 2020 and 2021 are a prediction based on the use of the deaths percentage of 2019 on the calculated population growth for the age group. Again, in pink, the resulting prediction without COVID deaths.

Just by looking at the graph, I cannot find other words to express it, it seems more natural with COVID, as if COVID deaths were not just deaths which would not have happened if not for COVID.

We cannot deny reality, the data is there to be analyzed and so far, it shows evidence that contradicts the official narrative. Most countries distort, manipulate, or even destroy data so statistical analysis cannot be done. There is not a lot of time left for us to use what is still somewhat useful or credible to turn this around. I hope the scientific community wakes up and stop looking after themselves or blindly repeating whatever any star scientist says without corroborating and falsifying it themselves.

A last look at all three pieces of information together in Graph 11 [31] might help make it clearer:

Graph 11: Nothing new here, just the same lines from the other graphs all together.

By looking at both the population and deaths, one could easily expect the red line to keep going in the direction that includes the COVID deaths. The same goes for the deaths percentage, going further down to the prediction without COVID would make no sense. It either has to go up in 2020 or 2021.

One last presentation, Graph 12 [32] contains the age distribution of the years 2015 to 2019:

Graph 12: Sadly, the ages 85 and older are all grouped and due to that I cannot calculate the average age for this age group, which is another nice piece of information.

This graph shows how year after year some specific ages grow, confirming exactly was I said before. Look at the ages 60 and 80. Only a few ages show for 2019 less people, for instance from 72 through 78. If you look at age 74 in 2015, you can see how it then is around the same height for age 75 and in 2016, both bars contain the same people minus the dead.

Let’s see this same graph but only for 2019:

We have seen, there are peaks and hollows in mortality. We know they are mostly due to natural factors, like climate, seasons, amongst others. Another factor contributing to such variations is the age distribution. Let’s do a mental exercise, move all bars one place to the right (making 85 just a bit higher and delete 84). Now we are in year 2020. Our bar of 79 is now in 80, our age group “80+” grew. As the bar which was 79 and now is 80 reaches 85, in combination with a bad winter, the likelihood of a spike happening will probably increase. Years go by, our bar from age 74 reaches the age of 85 and that could translate in a hollow in our mortality statistics.


Did I prove the official narrative to be false? In my opinion, yes. What is yours? If the population growth of your country is negative and your population is old, you can only expect more and more people to die every year, as death is unavoidable and the older people get, the likelier they are to die. This analysis I performed cannot be applied to each and every country. All countries must do they own research and analysis and draw their own conclusions based on their population and their health, amongst other things.

The first mistake people make is doubting something so evil and wrong could be done on purpose. Numbers speak for themselves or as some might say “dead men tell no lies”. Analyze the deaths in detail, put them in context, take into account the state of the health care system. I hope some will take this flag and analyze their own countries. I am sure there is more than one country out there, where despite high numbers of COVID deaths, the total number of deaths is between the expected range or even below it.

I do not care whether the virus exists or not, some people focus on that instead of going for a less controversial argument. Yes, I understand you, no government, university or institution even after ten months of pandemic has a sample of the virus to give you for research. Not one of all those papers published in renowned journals actually isolated the virus even though they put it in the title of the paper. What did they sequence if they have no virus? I do not care. People are dying. Not all from COVID as we can see here. I hope we turn this around, so doctors are able to use their knowledge and abilities to help these people, instead of being threatened with losing their license if they do not follow WHO and government guidelines. The governments, mass media, the WHO, pharmaceutical industry and who knows who else are clearly behind this. You cannot keep trusting them. They came up with a new way of classifying deaths and forced it into each and every country. People are suffering and dying because of this pandemic and not only from COVID, inform yourself and build your own opinion, if not for you at least for your loved ones. This is costing immense collateral damage, in terms not only of money and future but also of lives.

I do not want to change your mind. I do not ask you to believe me. Doing that is as wrong as believing them. You have to inform yourself; you have to build your own opinion. You have to think for yourself, leaving your thinking to someone else is the worst thing you can do. Once you do not question them anymore, they will do with you what they want and not what you want. I assure you, what they want for you is not good. Otherwise, the world would already be a better place.

To the fellow Germans and not Germans I share the soil with who support and defend the official narrative, let me put this into perspective, no matter who runs which country, you see right extremists and left extremists and everyone in between implementing the same restrictive measures and conditions worldwide. Would you still think the same if the situation were exactly what it is now, but the AfD party (known as right extremists here in Germany) were running the country? Let me give it another try, let’s say society cannot go on as it is, we cannot live together anymore and have to divide ourselves, we put a wall in-between, like the one from the cold war. Tell me, where would be, in your opinion, the DDR [33] (German Democratic Republic)? Would it be the side protecting you from COVID, keeping you safe, taking away your freedom in the name of the greater good, manipulating data, washing your brain with propaganda, the one you currently defend? Or the other side, the egotistic side, the side fighting not only for themselves but also for you?

Maybe you do not want the other side to fight for you, but you must understand, you do not involve yourself, you do not inform yourself, you do not build your own opinion and just recite what you are being told, you let “them” think and decide everything for you and force it upon everyone else, not respecting their freedom. We deserve an alternative, a coherent one. One thing is democracy, another one is totalitarianism. We own ourselves, give us an alternative.

They do not need to force anything on us. We live in a democracy they say, but your opinion is not your own, it is based on the lies they feed you through mass media and education. Your opinion is their opinion, your vote is their vote. As long as you believe your opinion is your own, you will believe democracy works and minorities will have to comply and lose ownership over their own bodies. As long as they control your opinion, they control you, as long as they control you, you are not free. Inform yourself, build your own opinion. Demand transparency, the truth. Whether you see it or not, they are waging war on the people.

Some might still argue and say, but the intensive care! Look at the intensive care [34]:

These statistics started late; around May they reached a nice level. Dark blue means “occupied beds”, light blue “free beds”, light green “emergency reserve” and brown “beds occupied with COVID patients”.

Just look at how since October the number of COVID beds rise non-stop. The number of total occupied beds stays the same. This second wave was never under control, compare the official numbers yourself if you wish. What do we not have? Statistics of this data for previous years, that way you could compare years and months, seasons and peaks, to see if something is a deviation or not.

For all those who might want to contact me, to teach and instruct me, to tell me how wrong I am and how little I know, I got an email address just for that. In your message I ask you to please explain me what the government is doing with our taxes, let me give you two examples of the job done by them [35][36]:

The first table is the number of deaths in 2020 in Germany by calendar week and its columns are: - Calendar week - Total number in 2020 - Difference of 2020 to the average of 2016-2019 - Number of COVID deaths - Relative difference in percentage to: - average of 2016-2019; 2016; 2017; 2018; 2019

Please do not forget and do to tell me, why this kind of information is better, more transparent and a job better done. Why do they report calendar week 47 with 9% more deaths than the average of the last four years but do not report calendar week 38 with 7,2% more deaths than the average of the last four years? Because in calendar week 38 we had thirty-nine (39) COVID deaths and in calendar week 47 we had one thousand five hundred twenty-nine (1.529). They will not report anything from calendar week 20 to 40, because even though we had a lot of deaths over the average, we had no COVID deaths. I call that propaganda. Used to manipulate the opinion of the people. Do you want an example? See what is happening in Austria, in a pandemic situation the government decides to reduce the health’s budget [37], where does that money go? To the advertising’s budget [38]. Propaganda to wash your brain. The content for both links is in German, I am sorry the media will not cover such things, seems like they know what they have to hide. You can run it through a translator if you want to read it.

I hope you realize, they made you use a mask for over ten months, they made you think you cannot visit you loved ones to keep them safe, they made you think you are egotistic; they make you sick physically and mentally by locking you inside and keeping you separated from other people, no wonder more people will die in the coming months and years. All they want is to divide us, divide and conquer, then after we are done fighting between us we will be easier to control. Watch out for what is coming, new strains more deadly, bigger numbers, more animals getting infected and infecting people, animals that will have to be killed to stop the spreading. Lack of food and social instability, people getting locked in government facilities to ensure the containment of the disease. More economic crisis and social control. Just think, you are the one letting this happen.

If you liked it, feel free to share it. My blog [39] has more analysis/reports you might want to check out. Each and every one is in English, German and Spanish.

Federico Eduardo Ferraris Sánchez 1/10/2021

Finally, I video I enjoyed watching, hope you do too:

As promised:

List of links:

1- Review report Corman-Drosten et al. Eurosurveillance 2020

2- A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID-19

3- Covid-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data

4- Retracted: A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID-19

5- Author's Response to "A Closer Look at U.S. Deaths due to COVID-19"

6- New Study Highlights Alleged Accounting Error Regarding Covid Deaths

7- The Censorship of Dr. Briand

8- RKI


10- Deaths - number of cases by days, weeks, months, age groups, gender and federal states for Germany 2016-2020

11- Population by age group (from 1950)

12- Population based on the 2011 census by gender and nationality over time

13- Migration between Germany and abroad: Germany, months, nationality, gender

14- CSV with the current Covid-19 infections per day (time series)

15- CSV-files-with-Covid-19-infections

16- Live births: Germany, years, gender

17- Population: Germany, reference date, years of age

18- Spiegelhalter says majority of Covid deaths would not have occurred in coming year

19- Deaths all age groups (w/o COVID) 2016 – 2020

20- Falsifiability

21- 87% of the corona deaths were aged 70+

22- Deaths (w/o COVID) by age group 2016 – 2020

23- Deaths (Timeline) by age group 2016 – 2020

24- Mortality rate (w/o COVID) by age group 2016 – 2020

25- Mortality rate (Timeline) against average of age group 80+ 2016 – 2020

26- Population data 2011 – 2021

27- Population by age group 2011 – 2021

28- Deaths by age group 2011 – 2021

29- Migration by age group 2011 – 2021

30- Mortality rate within each age group 2011 – 2021

31- Age group 80+ data 2011 – 2021

32- Population by age 2015 – 2019

33- Wikipedia for: German Democratic Republic

34- DIVI-Intensivregister

35- Deaths in the 47th calendar week 9% above the average for previous years


37- Rendi-Wagner criticizes 130 million cuts in hospitals - Anschober counters

38- Government’s spending record in advertising

39- My blog: gimmesometruth

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